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Tesla’s Product Roadmap update reveals Cybertruck, $25k Model won’t come in 2022

(Credit: @TeslaTruckClub/Twitter)

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Tesla’s Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2021 was its most impressive in history from a financial standpoint. After accomplishing its second profitable year of operations with a healthy automotive gross margin and above-consensus reports of production and delivery figures, Tesla activated bullish commentary across the board from many analysts and firms. However, the most anticipated portion of the call for some was Musk’s promise to update Tesla’s “Product Roadmap,” which revealed that “Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, [and] Optimus” will not come until 2023 at the earliest.

“So, we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year,” Musk said on the call. “It would not make any sense because we’ll still be parts constrained.” Global supply chain issues have plagued much of the automotive industry. Tesla, interestingly, has been the one company that has seemingly defied all odds and avoided increasing wait times for even the most standard of parts. However, the company is not immune to the shortages, and 2022 will not be a year where Tesla introduces any new vehicles, including the Cybertruck, which was recently rumored to be pushed back to 2023.

Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2021 earnings results: Revenue and EPS beat on most impressive quarter to date

It seems that reports were correct, and Tesla will not enter any explicit production phases of the Cybertruck, nor any of the other models Musk mentioned this year. The Roadster, Semi, and $25,000 rumored vehicle will not enter production any time during 2022. This does not mean that Tesla will not be developing them, however.

“We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely,” Musk added. He also indicated that the Tesla Bot, which is inching toward the name “Optimum Sub-Prime,” will be Tesla’s “most important product development” of 2022. “This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.”

Joe Rogan gives the Tesla Cybertruck some praise: “Coolest car I’ve ever seen in my life”

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While some (including myself) are frustrated with timeline delays, it is important to remember Tesla cannot control global supply constraints. While the company is super vertically-integrated, it cannot build its entire vehicles itself and has to receive some of its parts from third-party suppliers. This has limited Tesla’s ability to offer certain powertrains and has pushed back delivery dates on some currently offered models.

What about models that have been in Tesla’s pipeline for several years? The Cybertruck had an initial production date of late 2021 for the Tri-Motor powertrain. Now, the Tri-Motor will not even be the premier trim, according to Musk himself, who said a Quad-Motor variant would be the first Cybertruck model produced at Gigafactory Texas.

Tesla’s uber-affordable $25,000 model will also not be coming anytime soon, although he confirmed it. “Well, we’re not currently working on the — on a $25,000 car. We — you know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be.”

The Q4 2021 Earnings Call really told us all one thing: the good stuff is coming next year. This year will be a year of surviving the supply chain shortage, which Musk also stated would last through this year. “So — in 2022, supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all factories. So the chip shortage, while better than last year, is still an issue.” After Tesla works through short-term issues with the supply chain bottlenecks, the company’s longer-term projects can move forward, bringing more groundbreaking and innovative electric vehicles to the market.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Quotes provided by The Motley Fool.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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SpaceX readies Starship Flight 14 for a historic journey into uncharted territory

SpaceX finished Starship’s Flight 14 rehearsal, clearing the way for its first orbital flight Monday.

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Sunrise at Starbase. Starship is stacked for opportunistic full-stack testing ahead of Flight 14 via SpaceX
Sunrise at Starbase. Starship is stacked for opportunistic full-stack testing ahead of Flight 14 via SpaceX

SpaceX has cleared one of the last hurdles before Starship’s first trip to orbit. The company posted on X Thursday afternoon that its launch rehearsal for Flight 14 was complete, keeping the mission on track for Monday, September 28. The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. CT at Starbase, Texas, and runs for 75 minutes.

A wet dress rehearsal is essentially launch day without the launch. Crews fill Booster 21 and Ship 41 with thousands of tons of extremely cold propellant, run the countdown nearly to ignition, then drain everything back out. It lets engineers catch leaks or equipment problems before anything leaves the pad. SpaceX still needs a launch license from the FAA before the stack, which stands 407 feet tall, can fly.

Flight 14 matters because of where it is going. All 13 previous Starship flights followed a suborbital path, which works like throwing a ball extremely high and far: the vehicle reaches space, but it is always on a course that brings it back down within about an hour. This time, Ship 41 will perform a short engine firing called an orbital insertion burn roughly 25 minutes after liftoff, giving it enough speed to keep falling around Earth instead of back into it. SpaceX plans about six laps at an altitude near 275 kilometers (171 miles) over nearly 10 hours, as Teslarati detailed when the mission was first announced.


Getting into orbit also means Starship has to prove it can get back out. The ship must relight a single Raptor engine in space to slow down for reentry. SpaceX says it will only attempt the orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm the hardware needed for that return burn has enough backup, and its flight plan includes health checks that could shorten the mission to two or five orbits.

Flight 14 is also the first to put working satellites into service. Flight 13 carried 20 Starlink V3 satellites in July, but they came back down with the ship because that mission never reached orbit. This time, 26 V3 satellites are meant to stay up and join the constellation within a few weeks. Together they add about 26 terabits per second of network capacity, which SpaceX says is roughly 10 times what a single Falcon 9 launch of older V2 Mini satellites adds. Three of them carry cameras that will photograph Starship’s heat shield in orbit to check for tile damage before reentry.

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The hardware has changed too. Ship 41 flies with extra fasteners on tiles in the most vulnerable areas, fixes for gaps where superheated plasma slipped behind tiles, and curved tiles designed to reduce heating between them. Two tiles recovered from Ship 40 will fly again, the first reuse of any part of a Starship heat shield. Booster 21 carries better engine filtering and new relight software after ice clogged three center engines on the previous booster, leaving only eight of 13 engines to restart for its landing burn.

Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a new recovery zone after several Indian Ocean landings, while Booster 21 aims for the Gulf. Neither will be caught by the tower on this flight. Elon Musk said in August that a ship catch was likely “in a few months.”

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Google just picked SpaceX for its first step into orbital AI

Google will launch its first Project Suncatcher AI satellite on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare next week.

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Google is about to put its own AI chips into orbit for the first time, and it is paying SpaceX to get them there.

The company said Thursday that the first in-orbit test of Project Suncatcher, its research effort to find out whether space can host large-scale AI computing, will fly next week on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare mission.

The satellite, called MVP, is about the size of a refrigerator and carries four of Google’s Tensor Processing Units, the same chips Google runs in its ground data centers. Google originally planned to launch two custom satellites in 2027, but chose to move faster by integrating its chips into a satellite.

MVP’s solar panels supply about one kilowatt of power, and Google will run Gemini models on the TPUs only in bursts of roughly 15 minutes before the chips shut down so the radiators can shed heat. In a blog post, Google said its Trillium TPUs survived vibration testing that mimicked sustained launch loads of up to 10g, with individual components seeing 50 to 100g, and handled a radiation dose greater than a five year mission would deliver.

SpaceX and Google mull massive partnership on Musk’s orbital data dream: report

Next week’s flight, slated for October 1, follows a relationship that became public in May, when Teslarati reported that Google was in talks with SpaceX for a launch deal tied to orbital data centers. Google also holds a stake of roughly 6% in SpaceX.

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The two companies are chasing the same idea from very different starting points. SpaceX’s own orbital compute program is built around the AI1 satellite, a roughly 70 meter structure derived from Starlink V3 hardware that is designed for 150 kW of peak compute, about 150 times the power MVP will draw. Elon Musk has brushed off concerns about crowding orbit with those satellites, and SpaceX is building its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, to produce them, targeting an annualized rate of about 1 GW of space compute by the end of 2027.

Musk also posted on X on Thursday that “the amount of compute in space will obviously round up to 100% of all compute.”

Google has been more cautious in public. Its research estimates that launch prices need to fall below about $200 per kilogram before an orbital data center can compete with a ground facility on energy cost, a threshold the company believes could be reached around the mid 2030s. The Suncatcher team has said it expects the effort to remain a project rather than a product for years, which leaves the first real test of its hardware riding on a rocket from the company with the most aggressive timeline in the field.

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Tesla Cybercab gets initial tie-in to localized, in-house cathode plant

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has taken another concrete step toward owning its battery supply chain, and it’s doing so with what is perhaps the most important vehicle in its short-but-storied history.

On September 23, Tesla announced that it has officially built the first Cybercab with cathode material produced in-house at the company’s first cathode plant in the U.S., and the first in the U.S. overall.

Active cathode material is the most expensive piece of a lithium-ion battery cell, and it often accounts for more than a third of cell cost. For years, the industry sourced a majority of it from Asia, but Tesla’s decision to make it in the United States bodes well for the Cybercab project. This is the latest chapter in Tesla’s vertical integration strategy, which began in public at Battery Day in 2020.

At the Battery Day Event, Elon Musk said the company would build a North American cathode plant and overhaul the process to cut costs and waste, while also making some of the most powerful and long-lasting cells in the industry.

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The Austin facility took years to appear. Tesla filed permits for “Project Cathode” in 2022 on land near Giga Texas. By mid-2022, the building frame was up and Tesla later invested hundreds of millions of dollars as part of a larger expansion of the Giga Texas plant. The company stated it was operating the first large-scale cathode production facility in North America to supplement 4680 cell production.

One month later, that material reached a finished Cybercab.

The timing of this breakthrough is monumental for the Cybercab program. As Tesla officially launched the first Cybercab rides to the public earlier this month, production of the ride-hailing-geared vehicle is moving forward on the planned S-curve that CEO Elon Musk told everyone to expect.

Nevertheless, packs of Cybercab units have been spotted throughout the United States, in an effort to potentially activate the fleet as soon as the company gains regulatory approval in various geographic areas.

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On top of that, Tesla owning the cathode step and pairing it with its own in-house lithium from the Gulf Coast refinery shortens the supply chain that once stretched thousands of miles and subjects every pack to fewer external price shocks and geopolitical risks.

Tesla is not yet independent of all of its foreign suppliers, as some precursor metals come from mines and chemical plants. But the first in-house cathode Cybercab shows the company is closing the most expensive and most concentrated gap in its battery production efforts. For a vehicle like Cybercab to operate at a high utilization within the Robotaxi network, that control over cost is so crucial.

It is arguably as important as the software that drives it.

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